Sampling Distributions · ⁨การแจกแจงจากการสุ่มตัวอย่าง⁩

Enduring Understanding (VAR-1): Given that variation may be random or not, conclusions are uncertain.

Learning Objective VAR-1.G: Identify questions suggested by variation in statistics for samples collected from the same population. [Skill 1.A]

• VAR-1.G.1 Variation in statistics for samples taken from the same population may be random or not.

Enduring Understanding (VAR-6): The normal distribution may be used to model variation.

Learning Objective VAR-6.A: Calculate the probability that a particular value lies in a given interval of a normal distribution. [Skill 3.A]

• VAR-6.A.1 A continuous random variable is a variable that can take on any value within a specified domain. Every interval within the domain has a probability associated with it.
• VAR-6.A.2 A continuous random variable with a normal distribution is commonly used to describe populations. The distribution of a normal random variable can be described by a normal, or "bell-shaped," curve.
• VAR-6.A.3 The area under a normal curve over a given interval represents the probability that a particular value lies in that interval.
  • Illustrative examples for VAR-6.A: Continuous random variable: If one looks at a clock at a random time, the probability that the minute hand is between the 3 and the 6 is one fourth.

Learning Objective VAR-6.B: Determine the interval associated with a given area in a normal distribution. [Skill 3.A]

• VAR-6.B.1 The boundaries of an interval associated with a given area in a normal distribution can be determined using $z$-scores or technology, such as a calculator, a standard normal table, or computer-generated output.
• VAR-6.B.2 Intervals associated with a given area in a normal distribution can be determined by assigning appropriate inequalities to the boundaries of the intervals:
  • a. $P(X < x_a) = \dfrac{p}{100}$ means that the lowest $p\%$ of values lie to the left of $x_a$.
  • b. $P(x_a < X < x_b) = \dfrac{p}{100}$ means that $p\%$ of values lie between $x_a$ and $x_b$.
  • c. $P(X > x_b) = \dfrac{p}{100}$ means that the highest $p\%$ of values lie to the right of $x_b$.
  • d. To determine the most extreme $p\%$ of values requires dividing the area associated with $p\%$ into two equal areas on either extreme of the distribution: $P(X < x_a) = \dfrac{1}{2}\dfrac{p}{100}$ and $P(X > x_b) = \dfrac{1}{2}\dfrac{p}{100}$ means that half of the $p\%$ most extreme values lie to the left of $x_a$ and half of the $p\%$ most extreme values lie to the right of $x_b$.

Learning Objective VAR-6.C: Determine the appropriateness of using the normal distribution to approximate probabilities for unknown distributions. [Skill 3.C]

• VAR-6.C.1 Normal distributions are symmetrical and "bell-shaped." As a result, normal distributions can be used to approximate distributions with similar characteristics.

Enduring Understanding (UNC-3): Probabilistic reasoning allows us to anticipate patterns in data.

Learning Objective UNC-3.H: Estimate sampling distributions using simulation. [Skill 3.C]

• UNC-3.H.1 A sampling distribution of a statistic is the distribution of values for the statistic for all possible samples of a given size from a given population.
• UNC-3.H.2 The central limit theorem (CLT) states that when the sample size is sufficiently large, a sampling distribution of the mean of a random variable will be approximately normally distributed.
• UNC-3.H.3 The central limit theorem requires that the sample values are independent of each other and that $n$ is sufficiently large.
• UNC-3.H.4 A randomization distribution is a collection of statistics generated by simulation assuming known values for the parameters. For a randomized experiment, this means repeatedly randomly reallocating/reassigning the response values to treatment groups.
• UNC-3.H.5 The sampling distribution of a statistic can be simulated by generating repeated random samples from a population.

Enduring Understanding (UNC-3): Probabilistic reasoning allows us to anticipate patterns in data.

Learning Objective UNC-3.I: Explain why an estimator is or is not unbiased. [Skill 4.B]

• UNC-3.I.1 When estimating a population parameter, an estimator is unbiased if, on average, the value of the estimator is equal to the population parameter.

Learning Objective UNC-3.J: Calculate estimates for a population parameter. [Skill 3.B]

• UNC-3.J.1 When estimating a population parameter, an estimator exhibits variability that can be modeled using probability.
• UNC-3.J.2 A sample statistic is a point estimator of the corresponding population parameter.

Enduring Understanding (UNC-3): Probabilistic reasoning allows us to anticipate patterns in data.

Learning Objective UNC-3.K: Determine parameters of a sampling distribution for sample proportions. [Skill 3.B]

• UNC-3.K.1 For independent samples (sampling with replacement) of a categorical variable from a population with population proportion, $p$, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion, $\hat{p}$, has a mean, $\mu_{\hat{p}} = p$ and a standard deviation, $\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\dfrac{p(1-p)}{n}}$.
• UNC-3.K.2 If sampling without replacement, the standard deviation of the sample proportion is smaller than what is given by the formula above. If the sample size is less than 10% of the population size, the difference is negligible.

Learning Objective UNC-3.L: Determine whether a sampling distribution for a sample proportion can be described as approximately normal. [Skill 3.C]

• UNC-3.L.1 For a categorical variable, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion, $\hat{p}$, will have an approximate normal distribution, provided the sample size is large enough: $np \geq 10$ and $n(1-p) \geq 10$

Learning Objective UNC-3.M: Interpret probabilities and parameters for a sampling distribution for a sample proportion. [Skill 4.B]

• UNC-3.M.1 Probabilities and parameters for a sampling distribution for a sample proportion should be interpreted using appropriate units and within the context of a specific population.

Enduring Understanding (UNC-3): Probabilistic reasoning allows us to anticipate patterns in data.

Learning Objective UNC-3.N: Determine parameters of a sampling distribution for a difference in sample proportions. [Skill 3.B]

• UNC-3.N.1 For a categorical variable, when randomly sampling with replacement from two independent populations with population proportions $p_1$ and $p_2$, the sampling distribution of the difference in sample proportions $\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2$ has mean, $\mu_{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2} = p_1 - p_2$ and standard deviation, $\sigma_{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2} = \sqrt{\dfrac{p_1(1-p_1)}{n_1} + \dfrac{p_2(1-p_2)}{n_2}}$.
• UNC-3.N.2 If sampling without replacement, the standard deviation of the difference in sample proportions is smaller than what is given by the formula above. If the sample sizes are less than 10% of the population sizes, the difference is negligible.

Learning Objective UNC-3.O: Determine whether a sampling distribution for a difference of sample proportions can be described as approximately normal. [Skill 3.C]

• UNC-3.O.1 The sampling distribution of the difference in sample proportions $\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2$ will have an approximate normal distribution provided the sample sizes are large enough: $n_1 p_1 \geq 10, n_1(1-p_1) \geq 10, n_2 p_2 \geq 10, n_2(1-p_2) \geq 10$.

Learning Objective UNC-3.P: Interpret probabilities and parameters for a sampling distribution for a difference in proportions. [Skill 4.B]

• UNC-3.P.1 Parameters for a sampling distribution for a difference of proportions should be interpreted using appropriate units and within the context of a specific populations.

Enduring Understanding (UNC-3): Probabilistic reasoning allows us to anticipate patterns in data.

Learning Objective UNC-3.Q: Determine parameters for a sampling distribution for sample means. [Skill 3.B]

• UNC-3.Q.1 For a numerical variable, when random sampling with replacement from a population with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation, $\sigma$, the sampling distribution of the sample mean has mean $\mu_{\bar{x}} = \mu$ and standard deviation $\sigma_{\bar{x}} = \dfrac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}$.
• UNC-3.Q.2 If sampling without replacement, the standard deviation of the sample mean is smaller than what is given by the formula above. If the sample size is less than 10% of the population size, the difference is negligible.

Learning Objective UNC-3.R: Determine whether a sampling distribution of a sample mean can be described as approximately normal. [Skill 3.C]

• UNC-3.R.1 For a numerical variable, if the population distribution can be modeled with a normal distribution, the sampling distribution of the sample mean, $\bar{x}$, can be modeled with a normal distribution.
• UNC-3.R.2 For a numerical variable, if the population distribution cannot be modeled with a normal distribution, the sampling distribution of the sample mean, $\bar{x}$, can be modeled approximately by a normal distribution, provided the sample size is large enough, e.g., greater than or equal to 30.

Learning Objective UNC-3.S: Interpret probabilities and parameters for a sampling distribution for a sample mean. [Skill 4.B]

• UNC-3.S.1 Probabilities and parameters for a sampling distribution for a sample mean should be interpreted using appropriate units and within the context of a specific population.

Enduring Understanding (UNC-3): Probabilistic reasoning allows us to anticipate patterns in data.

Learning Objective UNC-3.T: Determine parameters of a sampling distribution for a difference in sample means. [Skill 3.B]

• UNC-3.T.1 For a numerical variable, when randomly sampling with replacement from two independent populations with population means $\mu_1$ and $\mu_2$ and population standard deviations $\sigma_1$ and $\sigma_2$, the sampling distribution of the difference in sample means $\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2$ has mean $\mu_{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)} = \mu_1 - \mu_2$ and standard deviation, $\sigma_{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)} = \sqrt{\dfrac{\sigma_1^2}{n_1} + \dfrac{\sigma_2^2}{n_2}}$.
• UNC-3.T.2 If sampling without replacement, the standard deviation of the difference in sample means is smaller than what is given by the formula above. If the sample sizes are less than 10% of the population sizes, the difference is negligible.

Learning Objective UNC-3.U: Determine whether a sampling distribution of a difference in sample means can be described as approximately normal. [Skill 3.C]

• UNC-3.U.1 The sampling distribution of the difference in sample means $\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2$ can be modeled with a normal distribution if the two population distributions can be modeled with a normal distribution.
• UNC-3.U.2 The sampling distribution of the difference in sample means $\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2$ can be modeled approximately by a normal distribution if the two population distributions cannot be modeled with a normal distribution but both sample sizes are greater than or equal to 30.

Learning Objective UNC-3.V: Interpret probabilities and parameters for a sampling distribution for a difference in sample means. [Skill 4.B]

• UNC-3.V.1 Probabilities and parameters for a sampling distribution for a difference of sample means should be interpreted using appropriate units and within the context of a specific populations.