Integrated case: the file on one page
Introduced| English | Meaning |
|---|---|
| case analysis/keɪs əˈnæləsɪs/ | Studying a real or realistic business situation to identify its problems and recommend what to do. |
One page, one argument
- Twelve courses built one bakery. The integrated case pulls the file together - and the test is whether one page can carry it.
- The spine: forces 16/25 - position premium, one sustained resource - fit six activities, equilibrium 22/14 - growth 11.6/9.6/8.5/7.0, cafe +152.2, walk-away 532.2 - execution 73.6 with a 4-hour gap - uncertainty EV 25.5, staged 11.6.
The case discipline
- Case analysis 案例分析: situation, frameworks chosen and scored, options numbered, decision, risks and review. Evidence for every claim; a number for every argument.
- Framework tourism is the failure mode: five models, no decision.
Where does this line belong?
Route each memo line to the box of the logic map it comes from.
The industry score out of 25?
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4 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 3 = 16.
The cafe walk-away price, in thousands?
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300 + 232.2 = 532.2.
Match each box to its headline number.
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Uncertainty closes the spine at EV 25.5, staged 11.6.
The forty-word memo
- We hold the premium position and deepen it (penetration EV 11.6): the second stage, the pooled supply, the fermentation log.
- We buy the cafe only at or below 532.2k with the supervisor as manager, piloted first (staged 11.6). We license abroad (CAGE 12). We do not ship buns; we do not launch the value line.
Repeat purchase target by the festival, in %?
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From 34%, owned by the head baker.
The memo rejects the value line because:
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One subtraction and one VRIO verdict.
Stress-test the memo
- Ask which number would reverse each decision. If the cafe's synergies are only half, 30k a year: PV $= 30 \times 3.8707 = 116.1$k and the walk-away is $\mathbf{416.1}$k.
- The 380k offer still creates $116.1 - 80 = 36.1$k. The decision survives a 50% synergy miss, and the memo can say so.
Synergies halved to 30k a year for five years at 9.19% (annuity 3.8707): walk-away price (one decimal, thousands)?
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$30 \times 3.8707 = 116.1$; $300 + 116.1 = 416.1$k.
If the cafe synergies come in at half the plan, the 380k offer destroys value.
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Half the synergies is worth 116.1k, still above the 80k premium: the deal creates 36.1k.
Worked example: where the growth ranking flips
- Penetration's EV is $18p + 2(1 - p)$ with $p = 0.6$. It beats market development's 9.6 while $16p + 2 > 9.6$, that is while $p > \mathbf{0.475}$.
- At $p = 0.4$ it falls to 8.4 and the ranking flips. The memo's first trigger, repeat purchase moving from 34% toward 45%, is what tells you which side of 0.475 you are on.
Penetration pays 18 or 2. The success probability below which it loses to market development's 9.6 (three decimals)?
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$18p + 2(1 - p) = 9.6$ gives $16p = 7.6$, so $p = 0.475$.
Three case slips
- Numbers without owners, owners without dates.
- The retrospective rewrite. The case is written before the festival, not after.
- A memo that cannot say what would prove it wrong. That is a belief.
The memo’s falsification triggers include:
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A strategy that cannot say what would prove it wrong is a belief.
A case that runs five models and reaches no decision still counts as analysis.
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Framework tourism: five models, no decision - it never started.
The case is written before the festival, not after.
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Prediction with review triggers - not the retrospective rewrite.
Recap
- One page, every number traceable to a unit.
- The memo: forty words, three review triggers (repeat 34-45; gap-0; pre-orders -20% by week 4).
- Analysis ends in a decision or it never started.