Interpret results without hiding uncertainty · 在解读结果时不应掩盖不确定性
| English | 中文 | Pinyin · 拼音 |
|---|---|---|
| analysis/əˈnæləsɪs/ | 分析 | fēn xī |
| variable/ˈveərɪəbl/ | 变量 | biàn liàng |
| limitation/ˌlɪmɪˈteɪʃn/ | 局限 | jú xiàn |
Two sites differ, but what does that mean?
- A student measures warmer ground in an open garden than under a tree. The result may fit a shade explanation, but the sites also have different surfaces. A number alone does not tell us which factor caused the difference.
- Analysis 分析 explains patterns in evidence and tests what they mean for the research question. Record the conditions before deciding what the comparison shows.
两个地点不同，但这意味着什么？
- 一名学生在开阔花园测得的地温高于树荫下。该结果可能符合遮阴的解释，但两处的地表也不同。仅凭一个数字无法告诉我们导致差异的因素是什么。
- 分析 分析解释证据中的模式，并检验这些模式对研究问题的意义。在决定比较结果之前，先记录相关条件。
Keep the record traceable
- Keep the original observations, units, dates, instrument details and site descriptions. Show how any summary was calculated so a reader can follow the steps.
- Do not remove a value simply because it disagrees with your expectation. Check whether a recorded error explains it, and document any exclusion rule and its effect.
保持记录可追溯
- 保留原始观察记录、单位、日期、仪器详情及地点描述。展示任何汇总数据的计算方式，以便读者能够追踪步骤。
- 不要因为某项数值与预期不符就将其删除。检查是否有记录的误差可以解释它，并记录任何排除规则及其影响。
What should you do with an unexpected observation? · 对于意外观察结果，你应该怎么做？
Unexpected data require investigation, not silent alteration. · 意外数据需要调查，而非悄悄更改。
Compare like with like
- A variable 变量 is a factor that can change. If shade and surface both differ between sites, your comparison cannot separate their effects.
- Where feasible and approved, compare the same surface with different shade conditions and record repeated observations at consistent times. Better comparisons reduce competing explanations; they do not make all uncertainty disappear.
同类相比
- 变量 变量是可以改变的因素。如果两处地点的遮阴和地表均不相同，你的比较就无法区分它们各自的影响。
- 在可行且获批准的情况下，对比相同地表但在不同遮阴条件下的情况，并在固定时间进行重复观测。更好的比较能减少竞争性解释；但不能消除所有不确定性。
Why does the paved-versus-soil comparison leave a competing explanation? · 为什么铺装路面与土壤的比较会留下竞争性解释？
A surface difference could contribute to the temperature difference attributed to shade. · 表面差异可能导致归因于遮荫的温度差异。
More readings at mismatched sites automatically separate the effects of shade and surface. · 在不匹配地点进行的更多测量会自动区分遮荫和表面的影响。
Repeating the same comparison does not isolate factors that change together. · 重复相同的比较无法分离共同变化的因素。
Explain a limitation’s effect
- A limitation 局限 is a reason the evidence supports less than you would like. Explain whether it affects measurement accuracy, comparison or the range of places your conclusion can cover.
- “The sample is small” is incomplete. State what range of times or sites it misses and how that prevents a wider claim. Suggest a realistic improvement that addresses the same issue.
说明局限的影响
- 局限 局限是指证据支持程度不如预期的原因。解释它是否影响测量精度、比较能力或结论适用的地域范围。
- “样本量小”这一说法不完整。应具体说明遗漏了哪些时间段或地点，以及这如何阻碍了更广泛的推断。建议一种切实可行的改进措施来解决同一问题。
Which limitation statement explains its effect? · 哪个局限性陈述解释了其影响？
The statement identifies a missing range and limits the conclusion accordingly. · 该陈述指出了缺失的范围并据此限制了结论。
Answer the question you investigated
- A defensible conclusion states the observed pattern, what explanation is supported and which competing explanation remains. Keep its scope tied to the actual method.
- If evidence is insufficient for the original question, explain the gap honestly and discuss the next step with your supervisor. Confirm the subject’s permitted method and the applicable assessment guide.
回答你所探究的问题
- 有根据的结论应陈述观察到的模式、得到支持的解释以及仍存疑的竞争性解释。其适用范围应与实际方法保持一致。
- 如果证据不足以回答原始问题，请诚实地说明差距，并与导师讨论下一步行动。确认该学科允许使用的方法及适用的评估指南。
Match each record to its purpose. · 将每条记录与其用途匹配。
A reader needs both the results and the conditions that produced them. · 读者既需要结果，也需要产生这些结果的条件。
Which conclusions fit the evidence described? · 哪些结论符合所描述的证据？
The observed local pattern is supported, but the comparison does not isolate shade. · 观察到的局部模式得到支持，但比较未能将遮荫单独分离出来。
The open site is paved; the shaded site has soil. Three measurements at each site show a difference, but surface and shade changed together. The student can report that these two sites differed under the recorded conditions. To test a shade explanation more directly, an approved follow-up could compare the same surface in shaded and unshaded conditions, with consistent timing and instruments. More readings at the original mismatched sites would improve the local record without separating the two factors.
开阔场地铺设了路面；遮荫场地则是土壤。每个地点的三次测量均显示出差异，但表面材质和光照条件同时发生了变化。学生可以报告这两个地点在记录条件下存在差异。为了更直接地验证遮荫假说，一个经批准的后续方案可对比同一表面在遮荫与无遮荫条件下的情况，并保持一致的时间安排和测量仪器。在原始变量混杂的地点增加更多读数，虽能完善当地记录，但无法将这两个因素分离开来。
Do not turn a list of weaknesses into a conclusion. Explain which weakness changes the claim and how.
不要将一系列弱点罗列为结论。应解释哪些弱点改变了原有主张及其具体影响方式。
Keep a traceable record, check the comparison, explain material limits and answer only what your evidence supports.
保留可追溯的记录，核查对比内容，阐明材料局限性，并仅基于已有证据作答。