Malthusian Theory · 马尔萨斯理论
| English | 中文 | Pinyin · 拼音 |
|---|---|---|
| exponentially/ˌekspəˈnenʃəli/ | 指数式 | zhǐ shù shì |
| linearly/ˈlɪnɪəli/ | 线性 | xiàn xìng |
| Neo-Malthusians/ˈniːəʊ mælˈθjuːzɪənz/ | 新马尔萨斯主义者 | xīn mǎ ěr sà sī zhǔ yì zhě |
Malthus's warning
- In 1798, Thomas Malthus warned that population would outrun food.
- He argued population grows exponentially 指数式 (1, 2, 4, 8...).
- But food supply grows only linearly 线性 (1, 2, 3, 4...).
马尔萨斯的警告
- 1798 年,托马斯·马尔萨斯(Thomas Malthus)警告人口会超过粮食。
- 他认为人口以指数式(exponentially)增长(1、2、4、8……)。
- 但粮食供给只以线性(linearly)增长(1、2、3、4……)。
According to Malthus, population grows ____ while food grows ____. · 根据马尔萨斯的观点，人口呈____增长，而食物呈____增长。
Population · 人口 exponential · 指数 (1,2,4,8), food linear · 线性 (1,2,3,4) — so population outruns food. · 人口呈指数增长(1,2,4,8)，食物呈线性增长(1,2,3,4) —— 因此人口会超过食物供应。
The predicted crisis
- Malthus predicted population would hit a ceiling set by food.
- Beyond it, positive checks (famine, disease, war) would raise the death rate.
- Preventive checks (later marriage, fewer children) could lower births instead.
预言的危机
- 马尔萨斯预言人口会撞上由粮食设定的上限。
- 超过它,积极抑制(饥荒、疾病、战争)会提高死亡率。
- 预防抑制(晚婚、少生)则能降低出生率。
Malthusian idea or criticism? · 马尔萨斯观点或批评？
Sort each statement as a Malthusian claim or a criticism of Malthus. · 将每个陈述分类为马尔萨斯的主张或对马尔萨斯的批评。
Select all · 所有 of Malthus's "positive checks" that raise the death rate. · 选择所有马尔萨斯的能提高死亡率的“积极制约”因素。
Famine, disease, and war are positive checks; later marriage is a preventive check. · 饥荒、疾病和战争是积极制约；晚婚是预防性制约。
Why Malthus was (mostly) wrong
- Malthus underestimated technology: the Green Revolution hugely raised food output.
- Trade, fertilisers, and machines let food grow faster than he imagined.
- Neo-Malthusians 新马尔萨斯主义者 update the fear to include water, energy, and other limits.
为何马尔萨斯(大体)错了
- 马尔萨斯低估了技术:绿色革命大幅提高了粮食产量。
- 贸易、化肥和机器让粮食增长得比他想象的快。
- 新马尔萨斯主义者(neo-Malthusians)把这一担忧更新为包括水、能源和其他限制。
Malthus correctly predicted the effect of modern farming technology. · 马尔萨斯正确预测了现代农业技术的影响。
He underestimated technology; the Green Revolution raised food far beyond his forecast. · 他低估了技术；绿色革命使粮食产量远超他的预测。
Thinkers who apply Malthus's warning to modern limits like water and energy are -Malthusians. · 将马尔萨斯的警告应用于水资源和能源等现代限制的思想家是-马尔萨斯主义者。
Neo-Malthusians update the concern to finite resources beyond food. · 新马尔萨斯主义者将担忧更新为粮食以外的有限资源。
Match each idea to its source. · 将每个观点与其来源匹配。
Malthus = original warning; criticism = technology; neo-Malthusians = modern resource limits. · 马尔萨斯 = 原始警告；批评 = 技术；新马尔萨斯主义者 = 现代资源限制。
Malthus's core prediction — mass starvation from population outrunning food — has not happened globally, because he could not foresee modern farming. But do not dismiss him entirely: neo-Malthusians argue the warning still applies to finite resources like water and energy.
马尔萨斯的核心预言——人口超过粮食导致大规模饥荒——在全球范围内没有发生,因为他无法预见现代农业。但不要完全否定他:新马尔萨斯主义者认为这一警告对水、能源等有限资源仍然适用。
Malthus expected famine as populations grew in the 1800s. Instead, the Green Revolution of the 1900s introduced high-yield seeds and fertilisers, and food output soared past population growth — the opposite of his prediction.
马尔萨斯预期 19 世纪人口增长会带来饥荒。相反,20 世纪的绿色革命引入高产种子和化肥,粮食产量猛增,超过了人口增长——与他的预言相反。
Malthus argued population grows exponentially while food grows linearly, so population would outrun food and be checked by famine. He underestimated technology (the Green Revolution). Neo-Malthusians revive the worry for finite resources.
马尔萨斯认为人口以指数式增长而粮食以线性增长,所以人口会超过粮食并被饥荒抑制。他低估了技术(绿色革命)。新马尔萨斯主义者为有限资源重提这一担忧。