Economic development
IGCSE Economics Topic 5 8:44 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
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Two babies are born on the same morning.
同一个早上，两个婴儿出生。
One in a rich country, one in a poor country.
一个在富国，一个在穷国。
Neither of them chose where.
他们都没法选择出生在哪里。
Yet one will probably live many years longer, spend more years in school, and earn several times as much.
但其中一个很可能会多活很多年、多念很多年书，收入也高出好几倍。
Economics begins by measuring that gap.
经济学要做的第一件事，就是把这个差距量出来。
Welcome to Topic Five.
欢迎来到第五单元。
One warning first. Growth is not the same as development.
先说一句提醒：增长和发展不是一回事。
Growth means a country produces more; development means people's lives get better.
增长是指国家生产得更多；发展是指人们的生活变得更好。
We will cover five things: living standards and the HDI, poverty, population, the ageing population, and the development gap.
我们会讲五件事：生活水平与HDI、贫困、人口、人口老龄化，以及发展差距。
The main indicator of living standards is real GDP per head.
我们怎么衡量人们生活得好不好？ 最主要的指标是人均实际GDP。
Gross domestic product is the total value of the goods and services a country makes in one year.
国内生产总值，是一个国家一年里生产的所有物品和服务的总价值。
Real means after rising prices are taken out.
实际，是指剔除了物价上涨之后。
Per head means divided by the number of people — roughly one person's average income.
人均，是指除以人口数， 所以它大致就是一个人的平均收入。
Higher real GDP per head usually means higher living standards.
人均实际GDP越高，通常生活水平就越高。
Let's do one.
我们来做一道。
A country produces real GDP of six hundred billion pounds and has fifty million people. Find its real GDP per head.
某国的实际GDP是六千亿英镑，人口是五千万人，求人均实际GDP。
The rule is simply GDP divided by population.
规则很简单：GDP除以人口。
So we divide six hundred billion by fifty million. That gives twelve thousand pounds per person.
所以用六千亿除以五千万， 得到每人一万二千英镑。
Always write the units.
单位一定要写上。
But remember, it is only an average.
但要记住，它只是一个平均数。
Look at the two warnings under that answer.
再看一次那个答案，还有它下面的两句提醒。
Twelve thousand pounds is an average: it hides how unequally income is shared.
一万二千英镑是一个平均数， 它掩盖了收入分配有多不平均。
It also ignores the quality of life — health, education, pollution.
它也完全没有说到生活质量：健康、教育、污染。
Two more are missing.
还有两个局限没写在幻灯片上。
Unpaid work at home and the hidden economy are never counted.
家里的无酬劳动和隐性经济，从来不被计入。
And prices differ between countries, so the same income buys different amounts.
而且各国物价不同，所以同样的收入能买到的东西也不一样。
Here is why an average hides so much.
这就是平均数掩盖了很多东西的原因。
Two countries, both averaging twelve thousand pounds.
两个国家，平均数都是一万二千英镑。
In Country A income is shared fairly evenly: the poorest fifth get about eight thousand, the richest fifth about sixteen thousand.
A国的收入分配比较平均：最穷的五分之一大约拿八千，最富的五分之一大约一万六千。
In Country B the poorest fifth live on two thousand, the richest fifth take forty thousand.
B国里，最穷的五分之一只靠两千过活，最富的五分之一却拿走四万。
The same average, but two very different countries.
平均数一样，国家却完全不同。
So always ask how the income is shared.
所以一定要问：收入是怎么分配的。
Income alone is not enough.
光看收入还不够。
The second indicator is the Human Development Index, or HDI.
第二个指标是人类发展指数，简称HDI。
Three things go in: income, from gross national income per head; education, in years of schooling; and health, from life expectancy.
有三样东西进去： 收入，用人均国民总收入衡量；教育，用受教育年数衡量；健康，用预期寿命衡量。
They become one number between zero and one — the closer to one, the more developed.
它们合成零到一之间的一个数字：越接近一，就越发达。
So three ways to raise it: get richer, more schooling, longer lives.
提高它有三条路：变得更富、上更久的学、活得更久。
Poverty is when people cannot afford a basic standard of living.
贫困，是指人们负担不起基本的生活水平。
Absolute poverty means people cannot afford even the basics: enough food, clean water, shelter and clothing.
绝对贫困，是指人们连最基本的东西都买不起： 足够的食物、干净的水、住所和衣服。
Relative poverty means people are poor compared with others in the same country — they can afford the basics, but far less than most.
相对贫困，是指与本国其他人相比，这些人是穷的。
One quick test: compared with what?
他们买得起基本的东西，但比大多数人少得多。
Basic needs, absolute.
有一个快速判断法： 看这个人是拿什么在比。
Neighbours, relative.
跟基本需求比，是绝对贫困；跟身边的人比，是相对贫困。
Why are people poor?
人为什么会穷？
Start with work: some have no job at all, and some do work but the wages are very low.
先说工作：有些人根本没有工作，有些人有工作，但工资很低。
Then poor education and poor health, which make it hard to get better work.
然后是教育差和健康差，这让他们很难找到更好的工作。
Then old age, or many children on one income.
再就是年老，或者要用一份收入养很多孩子。
Look at the photo: families here lack safe housing and clean water.
看这张照片： 这里的家庭缺少安全的住所和干净的水。
And these causes feed each other. That is the poverty cycle.
这些原因还会互相强化，这就是贫困循环。
What can a government do?
政府能做什么？
Four policies.
四项政策。
Economic growth creates jobs and income, but it takes many years.
经济增长会创造工作和收入，但需要很多年。
Redistribute income: progressive taxes pay for state benefits, but benefits cost tax money.
收入再分配：对高收入者征累进税，用来支付国家福利，但福利要花税钱。
A minimum wage is a legal lowest wage, so the lowest paid earn more; set it too high and jobs are lost.
最低工资，是法律规定的最低工资，让工资最低的人多挣一些； 定得太高，就会有人失去工作。
And better state education and healthcare, but they are expensive.
还有更好的公立教育和医疗，但它们很贵。
Name the policy and its drawback.
要写出政策，也要写出它的代价。
Now population.
现在说人口。
Only three things change the number of people.
只有三样东西会改变人数。
The birth rate: births each year for every thousand people.
出生率：每年每一千人中的出生人数。
The death rate: deaths for every thousand.
死亡率：每一千人中的死亡人数。
And migration: immigration is moving in, emigration is moving out.
还有移民：迁入是搬进来，迁出是搬出去。
Look at the arrows — two flow in, two flow out.
看这些箭头——出生和迁入流进来，死亡和迁出流出去。
So a population grows when births plus immigration beat deaths plus emigration.
所以，当出生加迁入大于死亡加迁出时，人口就增长。
In one year a country has eight hundred thousand births, five hundred thousand deaths, three hundred thousand immigrants and one hundred thousand emigrants.
某国一年里有八十万人出生、五十万人死亡、三十万人迁入、十万人迁出。
Net migration is immigration minus emigration: a gain of two hundred thousand.
净移民等于迁入减去迁出：净增二十万。
Natural change is births minus deaths: a gain of three hundred thousand.
自然变化等于出生减去死亡：净增三十万。
Add them: the population grew by five hundred thousand.
两个相加，这一年人口增加了五十万人。
Two parts, then add them.
分两步，再相加。
That is the whole method.
整个方法就是这样。
Population structure means how the people are split by age and sex.
人口结构，是指人口按年龄和性别怎么分布。
We draw it as a population pyramid.
我们把它画成人口金字塔。
Compare the two here. The developing country on the left has a wide base — a high birth rate and many children.
比较这两个：左边的发展中国家底部很宽——出生率高，孩子很多。
The developed country on the right is more like a column, with a much wider top.
右边的发达国家更像一根柱子，上面明显更宽。
That difference matters for development: a high birth rate leaves more children depending on each worker.
这个差别对发展也很重要：出生率高，意味着靠每个工作的人养活的孩子更多。
Now watch one country change over time.
现在看一个国家随时间的变化。
It starts with a wide base of children.
一开始底部很宽，孩子很多。
Then births fall, and the sides straighten into a column.
然后出生率下降，两侧慢慢变直，成了一根柱子。
Then people live longer, and the weight moves to the top.
再然后人们活得更久，重心移到了上面。
Few workers, many retired.
工作的人少，退休的人多。
Richer countries face an ageing population: people live longer and have fewer children, so the share of old people rises.
富国正面临人口老龄化：人们活得更久、孩子生得更少，所以老年人的比重上升。
The diagram gives three effects.
图上给了三个影响。
Fewer workers for each retired person, so each worker supports more people.
每个退休的人对应的工作者变少了，所以每个工作的人要养更多人。
More spending on pensions and healthcare, just when fewer people pay tax.
政府在养老金和医疗上花得更多，而这时交税的人反而更少。
And something must give: higher taxes, a later retirement age, or migrant workers.
还有，总得有所取舍：提高税收、推迟退休年龄，或者引进外来劳动力。
Why are some countries so much richer?
为什么有些国家富得多？
The table gives three differences: high income against low, good health against poorer health, more schooling against less.
表里给了三个差别：高收入对低收入， 健康较好对健康较差，受教育更多对受教育更少。
Three more matter.
考试里还有三个也很重要。
Productivity: developed countries use more machines and skill, so each worker produces much more, while many farmers in developing countries do subsistence farming — growing food just for their own family, with little left to sell.
生产率：发达国家用更多机器、更高的技能，所以每个工人的产出多得多； 而许多发展中国家的农民只做自给农业——种的粮食只够自家吃，几乎没有剩余可卖。
Resources, education, and health matter too: better schools, hospitals and use of resources all raise development.
资源、教育和健康也很重要：更好的学校、医院和资源利用都能提高发展水平。
Debt: many owe large sums, so less is left for schools.
债务：很多发展中国家欠着巨额债务，留给学校的钱就更少。
And trade: richer countries sell higher-value goods.
贸易：更富的国家卖的是价值更高的产品。
These two groups are not separate worlds.
这两类国家不是两个互不相干的世界。
Developing countries sell raw materials and cheap manufactured goods to richer ones. Richer countries sell them machines, technology and skills in return.
发展中国家把原材料和便宜的工业品卖给更富的国家； 更富的国家则卖给它们机器、技术和技能。
Trade, aid and investment can speed development up.
贸易、援助和投资，可以加快发展。
But add a warning: a country can become too dependent.
但最好的答案还会加上一句提醒： 一个国家可能变得过度依赖。
Raw material prices swing, and debts still have to be repaid.
原材料价格波动很大，而债务还是要还的。
Three marks students lose every year.
三个学生年年都在丢的分。
First, an average is not a share: real GDP per head hides the income distribution, while the HDI adds education and health.
第一，平均数不等于分配： 人均实际GDP掩盖了收入分配，而HDI补上了教育和健康。
Second, get the population sums right: net migration is immigration minus emigration.
第二，人口的算术要算对：净移民等于迁入减去迁出。
Third, absolute poverty is not relative poverty — absolute is basic needs, relative is your neighbours.
第三，绝对贫困不等于相对贫困——绝对贫困看基本需求，相对贫困看身边的人。
And if a question says explain two reasons, give two, and explain each one.
还有，题目说解释两个原因，就要给出两个，并且每一个都要解释。
Five things to take with you.
带走五件事。
First, real GDP per head is an average that hides how income is shared.
第一，人均实际GDP是平均数，会掩盖收入分配。
Second, the HDI adds health and education, so a fuller picture of development.
第二，HDI补上健康和教育，发展的图景更完整。
Third, absolute poverty is basic needs; relative poverty is poor compared with neighbours.
第三，绝对贫困是基本需求；相对贫困是和身边的人比。
Fourth, an ageing population means fewer workers for each retired person, so more spending on pensions and healthcare.
第四，人口老龄化意味着每个退休者对应的工人更少，养老金和医疗支出会上升。
Fifth, developed and developing countries trade with each other, but a country can become too dependent on raw materials and debt.
第五，发达国家和发展中国家彼此贸易，但一个国家可能过度依赖原材料和债务。