Marketing (A Level)
A-Level Business Topic 8 8:06 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
Chapters
Transcript
Every shop is running on numbers.
每一家店背后都在算数字。
How much to order.
进多少货。
What price to charge.
定什么价格。
Which new product to try.
试哪一款新产品。
Get those wrong, and food goes in the bin, or the shelves stand empty.
算错了，食物就得扔掉，或者货架空着没货。
Here are one shop's sales, quarter by quarter. They rise and fall every year.
这是一家店按季度统计的销售额，每一年都在起起落落。
So how many should the shop make next quarter?
那么下个季度要做多少？
Make too many and food is wasted.
做多了浪费食物，做少了顾客就会流失。
Make too few and customers walk out. Marketing analysis turns old numbers into a forecast.
营销分析把过去的数字，变成一个可以用来做计划的预测。
This is A Level marketing, in six steps.
这就是 A Level 营销，分六步。
Time-series forecasting.
时间序列预测。
Correlation.
相关性。
Elasticity.
弹性。
Then marketing strategy, Ansoff's matrix and the product portfolio.
然后是营销战略、安索夫矩阵和产品组合。
Start with time-series analysis.
先看时间序列分析。
It splits sales recorded over time into two parts.
它把随时间记录的销售额拆成两部分。
The trend is the long-run direction: up, down or flat.
趋势是长期的方向：上升、下降或持平。
The seasonal variation is the regular rise and fall inside each year, and it equals the actual figure minus the trend.
季节性波动是每一年内部有规律的起伏，等于实际值减去趋势值。
So how do you find the trend?
那么趋势怎么找？
Use a moving average.
用移动平均。
Take four quarters in a row, add them, and divide by four. That smooths the seasons away.
把连续四个季度相加，再除以四，季节的起伏就被抹平了。
Then slide the window forward one quarter and do it again.
然后把窗口向前滑动一个季度，再算一次。
Now the step the exam loves. With an even number of periods the average lands between two quarters.
下面是考试最爱考的一步： 当周期数是偶数时，平均值落在两个季度之间。
So you must centre it: add two four-quarter totals, then divide by eight.
所以必须做中心化：把两个四季度合计相加，再除以八。
A real exam question.
来做一道真题。
Quarterly sales, in millions of dollars.
某公司按季度统计的销售额，单位百万美元。
Find the four-period centred moving average for the first quarter of twenty twenty-five.
求二零二五年第一季度的四期中心化移动平均。
Add the four quarters around it: seven, plus five point five, plus four point two, plus six point four. That is twenty three point one.
先把它周围的四个季度相加： 七，加五点五，加四点二，加六点四，等于二十三点一。
Slide the window one quarter and add again: twenty three point seven.
把窗口滑动一个季度再加一次：二十三点七。
Add those two totals: forty six point eight.
把这两个合计相加：四十六点八。
Now divide by eight.
再除以八。
The trend at that quarter is five point eight five million dollars.
该季度的趋势值就是五点八五百万美元。
Now look forward.
现在往前看。
A forecast has two parts.
预测由两部分组成。
First, extend the trend line into the future; that is called extrapolation.
第一，把趋势线延伸到未来，这叫外推。
Second, add the seasonal variation for that quarter back on.
第二，把该季度的季节性波动加回去。
And here is the detail students miss: use the average seasonal variation, across every past year.
还有一个学生常漏掉的细节： 要用平均季节性波动，跨过去每一年取平均。
Forecast equals projected trend plus average seasonal variation.
预测等于延伸后的趋势加上平均季节性波动。
Now the forecast, from the same paper.
再看同一份试卷的预测题。
This firm's fourth quarter ran one point zero two above trend one year, and zero point three two above trend the next.
这家公司的第四季度，某一年高于趋势一点零二， 第二年高于趋势零点三二。
Add them: one point three four.
相加：一点三四。
Divide by two: zero point six seven million.
除以二：零点六七百万。
The trend for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty-five is already given as twenty one point four one.
二零二五年第四季度的趋势值题目已经给出，是二十一点四一。
So add the two together.
把两者相加。
The forecast is twenty two point zero eight million dollars.
预测销售额就是二十二点零八百万美元。
The next tool is correlation: how strongly two things move together.
下一个工具是相关性：衡量两个量一起变动的紧密程度。
On the left, advertising spending and sales rise together — positive correlation.
左边，广告支出和销售额一起上升，这是正相关。
On the right, sales fall as the price rises — negative.
右边，价格上升时销售额下降，这是负相关。
The line through each cloud is the line of best fit.
穿过每团点的那条直线是最佳拟合线。
Direction is only half of it; strength matters too.
方向只是其中一半，强度也很重要。
Watch this cloud of points.
看这团点。
A round cloud means no relationship.
点云是圆的，说明没有关系。
As the points pull in towards the line, the link gets stronger.
当点越来越靠近那条直线，联系就越强。
A firm that finds a strong link between advertising and sales can predict what more advertising will do.
如果一家公司发现广告与销售额之间有很强的联系，就能预测加大广告投入会带来什么。
But correlation never proves cause.
但相关性绝不能证明因果。
Ice cream sales and sunburn rise together, and neither causes the other — hot weather causes both.
冰淇淋销量和晒伤一起上升，可两者互不导致—— 是炎热的天气同时导致了它们。
In the exam, say what the link shows, then give the other explanation.
考试时，先说出这个联系说明了什么，再给出另一种解释。
The third tool is elasticity: how much demand reacts to a change.
第三个工具是弹性：衡量需求对变化的反应有多大。
Price elasticity is the one marketing uses most.
其中价格弹性是营销中用得最多的。
On the left, demand is elastic — a small price rise wipes out a lot of sales.
左边是富有弹性的需求：价格小幅上涨，销量就大幅下降。
On the right it is inelastic — the same rise hardly moves quantity.
右边是缺乏弹性的需求：同样的涨价，数量几乎没变。
Now put numbers on it.
现在用数字算一算。
A shop sells five thousand pies a month at three dollars each, and raises the price by sixty cents.
一家店每月卖出五千个派，每个三美元，现在把价格提高六十美分。
Elasticity is minus one point five.
需求价格弹性是负一点五。
Step one: the price change as a percent.
求提价后的月收入。
Sixty cents on three dollars is twenty percent.
第一步：算出价格变化的百分比。
Step two: multiply by the elasticity.
三美元涨六十美分，就是百分之二十。
Twenty times minus one point five is minus thirty percent.
第二步：乘以弹性。
Step three: sales fall by fifteen hundred, to three thousand five hundred pies.
二十乘以负一点五，等于负百分之三十。
Step four: revenue is quantity times price.
第三步：销量减少一千五百个，降到三千五百个。
That gives twelve thousand six hundred dollars.
第四步：收入等于数量乘以价格，结果是一万二千六百美元。
Before the rise it was fifteen thousand, so the rise cost money.
提价前是一万五千美元，所以这次提价让这家店少赚了钱。
Here is the mirror case, already worked out.
这是反过来的情形，已经替你算好了。
A firm cuts its price by ten percent, and demand rises twenty-five percent.
某公司把价格下调百分之十，需求上升百分之二十五。
That gives an elasticity of two point five, so demand is elastic.
算出弹性是二点五，所以需求富有弹性。
Quantity rose by more than price fell, so revenue rises.
数量上升的幅度大于价格下降的幅度，所以收入上升。
But revenue is not profit — check the costs.
但收入不等于利润——还要看成本。
Two more elasticities are on the syllabus.
考纲上还有两种弹性。
Income elasticity tells a firm how sales move when incomes change: luxuries swing hard in a boom and a slump, basics barely move.
需求收入弹性告诉企业，收入变化时销售会怎样变： 奢侈品在繁荣期和衰退期波动很大，必需品几乎不受影响。
Cross elasticity tells a firm what a rival's price change will do: substitutes steal your sales.
需求交叉弹性告诉企业，竞争对手改价会带来什么：替代品会抢走你的销量。
Now strategy.
接下来是战略。
A marketing strategy is the long-term plan for the firm's objectives; marketing planning is the work of setting it — studying the market, choosing target customers, deciding the mix.
营销战略是实现企业目标的长期计划；营销规划就是制定这个计划的工作—— 研究市场、选择目标顾客、决定营销组合。
Ansoff's matrix is the tool the exam wants.
安索夫矩阵是考试要考的工具。
Down the left, existing markets.
左边一列是现有市场。
More of the same product to the same buyers is market penetration, the safest.
把同样的产品更多地卖给同样的顾客，这是市场渗透，最安全。
A new product for the same buyers is product development.
为同样的顾客推出新产品，是产品开发。
The same product for new buyers is market development.
把同样的产品带给新顾客，是市场开发。
New in both is diversification, the riskiest.
在新市场推出新产品，是多元化，风险最大。
Ansoff looks at one move. Product portfolio analysis looks at the whole range at once, using the Boston matrix: every product sorted by market growth and market share.
安索夫看的是一步棋，产品组合分析看的是全部产品，用的是波士顿矩阵： 按市场增长率和市场份额把每个产品归位。
The point is balance — steady earners pay for the risky products that replace them.
关键是平衡——稳定赚钱的产品，供养将来接班的高风险产品。
Many firms grow by selling abroad, and globalisation has made that easier.
很多企业靠销往海外来成长，全球化让这件事更容易了。
Three ways in, with rising commitment.
进入方式有三种，投入依次上升。
Exporting risks least, but you control little once the goods leave.
出口风险最低，但货物一旦离开就几乎无法掌控。
A joint venture brings a local partner's knowledge, and shares the profit.
合资企业能带来当地伙伴的知识，但利润要分享。
Your own branch gives full control and costs the most.
开设自己的分公司掌控力最强，成本也最高。
Then adapt the mix — that is localisation.
然后再调整营销组合，这就是本地化。
One last thing, because twelve marks here are for evaluation.
最后一点，因为这个专题有十二分是考评价。
The question is usually: is time-series analysis enough to decide?
题目通常问： 时间序列分析是否足以做出这个决定？
Never answer with a flat yes or no.
千万不要只答是或不是。
Say what the tool does well: real data, trend split from season, a number to plan with.
先说这个工具的长处：真实数据，把趋势和季节分开，给出一个可用来做计划的数字。
Then say where it fails: it assumes the past continues, and never explains why customers buy.
再说它的不足：它假设过去会延续，而且从不解释顾客为什么购买。
Then judge, in the words of that business.
最后结合这家企业作出判断。
Three marks students throw away.
三个学生常丢的分。
First, centre an even-period moving average: two four-quarter totals, added, then divided by eight.
第一，偶数周期的移动平均一定要中心化： 两个四季度合计相加，再除以八。
Divide by four and you lose the marks.
除以四，大部分分数就没了。
Second, a forecast is the projected trend plus the average seasonal variation, and average means across years.
第二，预测等于延伸后的趋势加上平均季节性波动，而且平均是指跨年度取平均。
Show every line, because a correct method still earns marks.
每一步都要写出来，因为方法正确仍然能得分。
Third, never write that correlation proves cause. And one that lifts a grade: quote your elasticity values to justify a pricing or promotion decision numerically — a number beats an adjective every time.
第三，绝不要写相关性证明了因果。