International economic issues
A-Level Economics Topic 6 9:07 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
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Transcript
Look at the label on your phone, your shoes, your desk lamp.
看看你手机、鞋子和台灯上的标签。
Almost none of it was made in the country where you are sitting.
几乎没有一件是在你所在的国家生产的。
It arrived in steel boxes, on ships like these.
它们装在钢制集装箱里，由这样的货船运来。
No country makes everything for itself.
没有哪个国家什么都自己生产。
Each one makes what it does best, and buys the rest.
每个国家只做自己最擅长的，其余的都买回来。
Welcome to Topic Six.
欢迎来到第六单元。
Here is the road ahead.
先看看我们要走的路。
Why both countries gain from trade.
为什么贸易能让双方都获益。
Protectionism, and the tariff diagram.
贸易保护，以及关税图。
The balance of payments.
国际收支。
Exchange rates.
汇率。
And how a government corrects a deficit.
还有政府怎样纠正逆差。
International trade lets countries buy and sell with each other, so each can specialise in what it makes best and the world makes more in total.
有两个看着相像、其实不同的术语。 如果一个国家用同样的资源能生产得更多， 它在这种商品上就有绝对优势。
Now two terms that look alike, and are not. A country has an absolute advantage in a good if it can make more of it with the same resources. It has a comparative advantage if it makes that good at a lower opportunity cost.
如果一个国家生产这种商品的机会成本更低， 它就有比较优势。
Now look at the numbers.
现在看这些数字。
From the same resources, Country A makes twenty wine or ten cloth.
用同样的资源，A 国能生产二十单位酒或十单位布。
Country B makes only five of either.
B 国两样都只能生产五单位。
Country A is better at both.
所以 A 国两样都更强。
Does that make trade pointless?
那贸易是不是就没有意义了？
Not at all.
完全不是。
Opportunity cost decides.
决定的是机会成本。
In Country A, one more cloth means giving up two wine.
在 A 国，多生产一单位布，要放弃两单位酒。
In Country B, one more cloth means giving up only one wine.
在 B 国，多生产一单位布，只要放弃一单位酒。
Country B gives up less, so it has the comparative advantage in cloth.
B 国放弃得更少， 所以 B 国在布上有比较优势。
Turn the test around for wine, and Country A wins that one.
把这个方法反过来用在酒上，赢的就是 A 国。
So Country A makes only wine, Country B makes only cloth, and they trade.
于是 A 国只生产酒，B 国只生产布，然后交换。
Both can end up with more than before.
两国最后都能比以前得到更多。
Here is the same idea drawn.
这就是同一个想法的图。
Wine runs up the side, cloth along the bottom.
纵轴是酒，横轴是布。
Country A's blue line is steep: every cloth costs it two wine.
A 国的蓝线很陡： 每一单位布要付出两单位酒。
Country B's orange line is flat: every cloth costs one.
B 国的橙线很平：每一单位布只付出一单位酒。
The flatter line wins the cloth.
更平的那条线赢得布。
But state the limits: the theory assumes no transport costs, no barriers, and costs that never change with output.
但也要写出局限：这个理论假设没有运输成本， 没有贸易壁垒，成本也不随产量改变。
The gains from trade are real, but the simple theory is thin.
贸易的好处是真的，但这个简单理论很薄。
It assumes no transport costs, no trade barriers, and costs that never change as output grows.
它假设没有运输成本，没有贸易壁垒， 成本也不随产量增加而改变。
None of that fully holds in the real world.
现实里这些并不完全成立。
The model also pretends workers and machines can switch from wine to cloth overnight.
这个模型还假装工人和机器能一夜之间从酿酒改去织布。
They cannot.
它们不能。
And specialising in one good is risky: if that good's world price falls, the country that made only that good is hit hardest.
而且专做一种商品是有风险的： 如果那种商品的世界价格下跌， 只做这一样的国家伤得最重。
Always write those limits in an evaluate answer, or the theory looks like a free lunch.
评价题里要把这些局限写出来，否则理论看起来像白吃饭。
Trade also has a price: the terms of trade.
贸易本身也有一个价格：贸易条件。
It compares the price of a country's exports with the price of its imports, as an index.
它用指数来比较一个国家出口的价格和进口的价格。
Here is the exam question.
来看考题。
Export prices rise from one hundred to one hundred and ten; import prices rise to one hundred and five.
出口价格指数从一百升到一百一十；进口价格指数升到一百零五。
Divide exports by imports, then multiply by one hundred.
用出口除以进口，再乘以一百。
That gives one hundred and four point eight.
得到一百零四点八。
Above one hundred means the terms of trade have improved.
高于一百，就说明贸易条件改善了。
Not every government wants free trade.
并不是每个政府都想要自由贸易。
Protectionism means shielding home producers from foreign competition.
贸易保护主义，就是保护本国生产者不受外国竞争的冲击。
Learn all five tools.
五种工具都要记住。
A tariff is a tax on imports.
关税是对进口品征的税。
A quota is a legal limit on how much may come in.
配额是对进口数量的法律限制。
A subsidy is money paid to home firms, so they can undercut foreign rivals.
补贴是付给本国企业的钱，让它们能比外国对手卖得更便宜。
An embargo is a complete ban.
禁运是完全禁止。
Administrative barriers are paperwork and tough standards.
行政壁垒则是繁琐的手续和苛刻的标准。
Only the tariff raises money.
只有关税能带来收入。
This diagram earns marks fast.
这张图能很快拿到分。
Price runs up the side, quantity along the bottom.
纵轴是价格，横轴是数量。
Orange is home supply, blue is home demand.
橙线是本国供给，蓝线是本国需求。
Start at the solid line, the world price.
先看那条实线，也就是世界价格。
There, home firms supply little and buyers want a lot, and that long gap is filled by imports.
在那里，本国企业只供给很少，买家却想要很多， 中间这段很长的差距由进口填补。
Now add the tariff.
现在加上关税。
Price rises to the dashed line.
价格升到虚线的位置。
Home supply grows, demand falls, and imports shrink to the short arrow.
本国供给增加，需求下降，进口缩小成那条短箭头。
The shaded box is the tariff revenue.
阴影方块就是关税收入。
Now the evaluation.
现在来做评价。
Arguments for protection: an infant industry too young to compete, jobs at home, and stopping dumping, where foreign firms sell below cost.
支持保护的理由：幼稚产业太年轻，竞争不过；保住本国的工作； 还有制止倾销，也就是外国企业低于成本销售。
Arguments against are strong: consumers pay more, protected firms stay inefficient, and other countries hit back with retaliation.
反对的理由也很有力：消费者要付更高的价格， 受保护的企业一直低效，别的国家还会以报复回击。
Then name the stakeholders.
然后要点出利益相关者。
Home producers gain, and so does the government.
本国生产者获益，政府也获益。
Consumers lose choice and pay more, and foreign producers lose sales.
消费者失去选择、付出更高价格，外国生产者则失去销量。
Trade is only part of a bigger record.
贸易只是一份更大的记录中的一部分。
The balance of payments records every flow of money between one country and the rest of the world.
国际收支记录一个国家与世界其他地区之间的每一笔资金流动。
The exam asks about the current account, and it has four parts.
考试问的是经常账户，它有四个组成部分。
Trade in goods: cars, food, oil.
货物贸易：汽车、食品、石油。
Trade in services: tourism and banking.
服务贸易：旅游和银行。
Primary income: wages, profit and interest earned abroad.
初次收入：在国外挣到的工资、利润和利息。
And secondary income: transfers with nothing given back, such as aid.
还有二次收入：没有回报的转移，比如援助。
Add those four up and you get a balance.
把这四项加起来，就得到一个差额。
If a country buys more from abroad than it sells, it has a current account deficit.
如果一个国家从国外买的多于卖出去的， 它就有经常账户赤字。
If it sells more than it buys, it has a surplus.
如果卖的多于买的，它就有盈余。
Neither is automatically good or bad.
两者都不是天然的好或坏。
A long deficit must be paid for, so debt to other countries rises.
长期赤字总要有人来付，于是对其他国家的债务上升。
But a large surplus can mean a country saves heavily and consumes too little.
但巨额盈余也可能意味着这个国家储蓄太多、 消费太少。
Always judge a deficit by its size, its cause, and how long it lasts.
要始终从赤字的规模、原因和持续时间来判断它。
Every one of those flows crosses a currency.
上面每一笔资金流动，都要跨过一种货币。
An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another, and a country runs one of three systems.
汇率就是一种货币用另一种货币表示的价格， 而一个国家会采用三种制度之一。
A floating rate is set freely by demand and supply.
浮动汇率由需求和供给自由决定。
A fixed rate is held at a set value by the central bank, which buys and sells its own currency to keep it there.
固定汇率由中央银行维持在某个水平，中央银行买入卖出本国货币来守住它。
A managed rate mostly floats, but the central bank steps in to steady it.
管理浮动汇率大体上浮动，但中央银行会出手稳定它。
Here is a floating rate at work.
这就是浮动汇率在起作用。
The quantity of pounds runs along the bottom, the rate up the side.
横轴是英镑的数量，纵轴是汇率。
Demand slopes down, supply slopes up, and where they cross the rate is set: the lower point.
需求向下倾斜，供给向上倾斜， 两者相交的地方决定汇率，也就是下面那个点。
Now foreigners want more of our exports.
现在外国人想多买我们的出口品。
They must buy pounds first, so demand shifts right, to the green dashed line.
他们得先买英镑，于是需求向右移，移到那条绿色虚线。
The crossing point climbs, and the rate rises.
交点向上爬，汇率随之上升。
That rise is an appreciation.
这样的上升，就叫升值。
So what does a stronger currency actually do?
那么货币变强，究竟会带来什么？
Watch.
看这里。
The pound rises, so a foreign buyer gives up more of their own money for each pound.
英镑上升，外国买家买同样一英镑， 就要付出更多自己的钱。
Our exports become dearer abroad, and imports become cheaper for us.
我们的出口在国外变贵，进口对我们变便宜。
A depreciation does the opposite.
贬值的效果正好相反。
The memory hook: strong pound, imports cheaper, exports dearer.
记忆的口诀是：英镑走强，进口更便宜，出口更贵。
A depreciation can raise export sales and cut imports, so it may help the current account.
贬值可以提高出口销量、减少进口， 所以它可能改善经常账户。
Cheaper exports are not free, though.
但更便宜的出口不是白来的。
Imports cost more in home currency, and that can raise inflation.
进口用本币计价会更贵，这可能推高通胀。
The current account only improves if demand for exports and imports is elastic enough.
只有出口和进口的需求弹性足够大， 经常账户才会改善。
That extra condition is called Marshall-Lerner.
这个额外条件叫做马歇尔-勒纳。
In an evaluate answer, write both sides: extra export volume, and a higher import-price inflation risk.
评价题里两面都要写：出口量增加，以及进口价格推高通胀的风险。
Let's put money on it.
我们来算算钱。
The rate is one pound to one dollar forty.
汇率是一英镑兑一点四零美元。
A British exporter sells a machine for two hundred pounds.
一位英国出口商卖一台机器，售价两百英镑。
Pounds into dollars, so multiply: that is two hundred and eighty dollars.
英镑换美元，所以要乘：结果是两百八十美元。
Now the pound appreciates to one dollar sixty.
现在英镑升值到一点六零。
The same machine now costs the American three hundred and twenty dollars, so fewer are sold.
同一台机器现在要美国买家付三百二十美元，于是卖得更少。
Going the other way, a bill of seven hundred dollars costs the British firm five hundred pounds.
反过来看， 一张七百美元的账单，这家英国公司要付五百英镑。
Suppose the deficit is a real problem.
假设这个赤字确实是个问题。
Three families of policy.
政策分成三类。
Expenditure-reducing policies cut demand with higher taxes or interest rates, so people buy fewer imports, but growth slows.
支出减少政策用提高税率或利率来压低需求， 于是人们少买进口品，但增长放慢。
Expenditure-switching policies shift spending to home goods, with a tariff or a weaker currency, but they invite retaliation.
支出转换政策用关税或更弱的货币， 把支出转向本国商品，但会招来报复。
Supply-side policies raise competitiveness through skills and technology.
供给侧政策通过技能和技术提高竞争力。
That one treats the cause, but it is slow.
这一类治的是病根，但见效很慢。
Four marks students throw away.
四个学生白白丢掉的分。
First, always explain comparative advantage through opportunity cost, and state its assumptions.
第一，一定要用机会成本来解释比较优势，并写出它的假设。
Second, if a question says evaluate protectionism, give both sides: jobs saved, but higher prices and retaliation.
第二，只要题目说"评价贸易保护"，就要给出两面：保住了工作，但价格更高，还会招来报复。
Third, know what the current account holds: trade, income and transfers.
第三，要记清经常账户装的是什么：贸易、收入和转移。
Fourth, a depreciation only helps the current account if demand is elastic enough.
第四，只有需求弹性足够大，贬值才能改善经常账户。
That is the Marshall-Lerner condition.
这就是马歇尔-勒纳条件。