Government macroeconomic intervention
A-Level Economics Topic 5 8:52 English narration · English + 中文 subtitles burned in
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Transcript
Prices are rising fast.
物价飞涨。
Jobs are hard to find.
工作难找。
Growth has stopped.
增长停滞。
Who fixes that?
谁来解决？
Two buildings decide.
由两座建筑决定。
In one, the government chooses what to spend and what to tax.
在其中一座，政府决定花多少钱、收多少税。
In the other, the central bank chooses the interest rate.
在另一座，中央银行决定利率。
This lesson is about those two levers, and a third that works far more slowly.
这节课要讲的就是这两根杠杆，以及第三根见效慢得多的杠杆。
Here is the plan.
本节的安排是这样的。
First, what a government is aiming at, and why those aims fight each other.
首先，政府到底想达成什么目标，以及这些目标为什么互相冲突。
Then fiscal policy — spending and taxes — and the kinds of tax.
然后是财政政策——支出与税收——以及税收的种类。
Then monetary policy, and how one interest rate reaches the whole economy.
接着是货币政策，以及一个利率如何影响整个经济。
And last, supply-side policy, the slow tool.
最后是供给侧政策，那个见效很慢的工具。
The macroeconomic policy objectives: a government has five main aims.
政府有五个主要目标。
Price stability: inflation low and steady, often about two percent a year.
物价稳定：通货膨胀又低又稳，通常在每年百分之二左右。
Full employment: a job for almost everyone who wants one.
充分就业：几乎每个想工作的人都有工作。
Economic growth: real output rising over time.
经济增长：实际产出随时间不断上升。
Balance of payments stability: not importing far more than the country sells.
国际收支稳定：不要长期进口远多于本国卖出的东西。
And redistribution of income, narrowing the gap between rich and poor.
最后是收入再分配，缩小贫富差距。
Now the hard part: those five aims pull against each other, and the exam names four conflicts.
接下来是难点：这五个目标会互相拉扯。
Growth versus inflation: chase fast growth and demand rises, so prices are pulled up.
追求高速增长，需求上升，物价就被推高。
Growth versus the balance of payments: richer people buy more imports, so the trade balance gets worse.
人们变富后也会买更多进口品，贸易差额因此变差。
Growth versus the environment: more output usually means more pollution.
产出更多，往往也意味着污染更多。
And unemployment versus inflation: cutting unemployment by raising demand can cause inflation.
就业和物价之间也有同样的张力：靠提高需求来降低失业，可能引起通货膨胀。
So what can a government do?
那么政府能做什么？
Three sets of tools, in two families.
三套工具，分成两大类。
Fiscal policy — taxes and spending.
财政政策——税收与支出。
And monetary policy — interest rates and the money supply.
货币政策——利率与货币供给。
Those two are demand-side policies: they move aggregate demand.
这两者都是需求侧政策：它们移动总需求。
Supply-side policy is different.
供给侧政策则不同。
It works on aggregate supply, on what a country is able to produce.
它作用于总供给，也就是一个国家能够生产多少。
Get that split right and half the topic is yours.
把这个划分弄清楚，这个专题就掌握了一半。
Start with fiscal policy: the government's own spending and taxation.
先看财政政策：政府自己的支出与税收。
Compare the two over a year and you have the budget.
把一年里的两者相比，就得到预算。
Spend more than you raise in tax and that is a budget deficit — the government borrows, and the national debt grows.
支出多于税收收入，就是预算赤字——政府必须借钱，国债因此增加。
Spend less and it is a surplus.
支出少于税收收入，就是盈余。
Expansionary policy means spending more or taxing less, to fight a recession.
扩张性政策就是多支出或少收税，用来对抗衰退。
Contractionary policy does the opposite, to fight inflation.
紧缩性政策则相反，用来对抗通货膨胀。
Taxes are sorted in two ways.
税收有两种分类方式。
First, by what is taxed.
第一，按征税对象分。
A direct tax is paid straight to the government on income or profit.
直接税是就收入或利润直接向政府缴纳的税。
An indirect tax is a tax on spending, added to the price of the goods you buy.
间接税是对支出征的税，加在你买的商品价格里。
Second, by how the rate moves as income rises.
第二，按税率随收入如何变化来分。
Up the side is the average tax rate — tax paid divided by income.
纵轴是平均税率——缴的税除以收入。
Under a progressive tax that rate rises as income rises, so the rich pay a larger share; income tax works this way. Those are the types of tax.
在累进税下，收入越高，这个税率越高， 所以富人缴的比例更大；所得税就是这样。
Under a proportional tax the rate is flat: everyone pays the same share.
在比例税下，税率是平的：每个人缴同样的比例。
Under a regressive tax the rate falls as income rises, so the poor pay the larger share, and most indirect taxes do this.
在累退税下，收入越高税率反而越低，所以穷人缴的比例更大，大多数间接税都是这样。
Now back to expansionary policy — watch it on the diagram.
现在回到扩张性政策——看看它在图上是怎么回事。
Supply stays where it is.
供给曲线原地不动。
Aggregate demand shifts to the right.
总需求向右移动。
The new crossing point sits up and to the right of the old one: real output is higher, and so is the price level.
新的交点落在原来交点的右上方：实际产出更高，价格水平也更高。
That is the trade-off inside every demand-side policy.
这就是每一项需求侧政策内在的权衡。
Here is the same move drawn the way the examiner wants it.
同样的移动，这次按考官想要的方式画出来。
Label your axes: price level up the side, real output across the bottom.
先标坐标轴：纵轴是价格水平，横轴是实际产出。
Short-run aggregate supply slopes up.
短期总供给向上倾斜。
The first demand curve gives the starting price level and output.
第一条需求曲线给出起始的价格水平和产出。
The government spends more, so demand shifts right, to the second curve.
政府增加支出，需求向右移到第二条曲线。
Output is higher, and the price level is higher too.
产出更高，价格水平也更高。
Contractionary policy is this picture in reverse.
紧缩性政策就是这幅图反过来。
So is fiscal policy any good?
那么财政政策好不好用？
Its strength is that it acts on demand directly.
它的长处是直接作用于需求。
But there are three problems.
但有三个问题。
Time lags: a budget is set once a year, so the help arrives late.
时间滞后：预算通常一年才定一次，帮助来得太晚。
Debt: a deficit has to be borrowed, and the debt keeps building.
债务：赤字必须靠借钱，债务不断堆积。
And crowding out.
还有挤出效应。
When the government borrows heavily it competes for the same pool of savings, interest rates are pushed up, and private firms invest less.
政府大量借钱时，它和私人部门争夺同一批储蓄，利率被推高，私人企业的投资就减少。
Part of the boost is cancelled out.
刺激的效果有一部分被抵消掉了。
Monetary policy is run by the central bank, not by the government.
货币政策由中央银行执行，而不是政府。
Its main tool is the interest rate; it can also change the money supply or the exchange rate.
它的主要工具是利率； 它也可以改变货币供给，或影响汇率。
Its strength is speed: the rate can change at any meeting.
它的长处是快：利率在任何一次会议上都能改变。
Its weakness is the lag — a change takes a year or more to bite.
它的短处是滞后——一次调整要一年甚至更久才见效。
And in a deep slump, even very low rates may not persuade worried firms to borrow.
而且在深度衰退中，即使利率很低，也未必能说服忧心忡忡的企业去借钱。
How does one interest rate reach the whole economy?
一个利率是怎么影响到整个经济的？
Learn it as a chain — the transmission mechanism.
把它当成一条链条来记——这就是传导机制。
The central bank raises the interest rate.
中央银行提高利率。
Borrowing becomes dearer, so households and firms spend and invest less.
借钱变贵，家庭和企业于是少花钱、少投资。
Saving is rewarded, so people spend less again.
储蓄有了回报，人们又进一步减少支出。
And the currency tends to rise, so exports fall.
本国货币趋于升值，出口因此下降。
All three push spending, investment and exports down.
这三条渠道都压低支出、投资和出口。
Aggregate demand falls, and inflation slows.
总需求下降，通货膨胀放缓。
A rate cut runs the same chain backwards.
降息则让同一条链条反向运行。
The third tool is different.
第三种工具不一样。
Supply-side policy raises productivity and a country's productive capacity — what it can produce when everything is used.
供给侧政策提高一个国家的生产能力——也就是资源全部投入时能生产多少。
On the diagram the long-run supply line moves right, to its new position.
在图上，长期供给线向右移到新的位置。
Follow demand down to it: real output is higher, and the price level is lower.
沿着需求曲线往下看：实际产出更高，价格水平更低。
Growth and lower inflation together, with no trade-off.
增长与更低的通胀同时实现，没有取舍。
There are two ways to do it.
做法有两种。
Market-based policies let markets work more freely: cut income tax and benefits so the incentive to work is stronger; privatisation, selling state firms to private owners; and deregulation, removing rules that block competition.
市场化政策让市场更自由地运作：降低所得税和福利，让工作更划算； 把国有企业卖给私人；取消阻碍竞争的规定。
Interventionist policies use the government directly: education and training, infrastructure like roads and broadband, support for research.
干预型政策则直接动用政府：教育与培训，道路和宽带这样的基础设施，以及对研究的支持。
Both are slow and costly.
两者都既慢又费钱。
Supply-side policy has one strength nothing else can match.
供给侧政策有一个别的工具都比不上的优势。
Fiscal and monetary policy buy output at the cost of prices, or prices at the cost of output.
财政政策和货币政策要么以物价为代价换产出， 要么以产出为代价换物价。
Supply-side moves long-run supply right, so real output rises and the price level falls together — growth and lower inflation, with no trade-off.
供给侧政策把长期总供给曲线右移，于是实际产出上升、 价格水平下降，两件事同时发生——增长和更低的通胀，没有取舍。
So why not use it for everything?
那为什么不全都用它呢？
Three reasons.
三个原因。
First, it is slow: educating a workforce or building a port takes years, and a recession needs help this quarter.
第一，它慢：培养一支有技能的劳动力、 修一座港口都要好些年，而衰退需要的是这个季度就见效的帮助。
Second, it is costly — training, infrastructure and research are all government spending, so a supply-side programme can run the same deficit a fiscal one does.
第二，它费钱——培训、基础设施和研究全都是政府支出， 所以一项供给侧计划同样可能造成财政赤字。
And third, it can widen the gap.
第三，它可能拉大差距。
Cutting benefits and income tax to sharpen the incentive to work takes most from the poorest, which fights redistribution — the fifth objective this lesson opened with.
削减福利和所得税来强化工作激励， 拿走的比例最大的是最穷的人，这与收入再分配相冲突—— 也就是本课一开始讲的第五个目标。
So name the objective each policy serves: demand-side for now, supply-side for the long run.
所以要点明每种政策服务的是哪个目标： 眼下用需求侧，长期靠供给侧。
An economy is in a deep recession with a large output gap, and interest rates are already near zero.
一个经济体陷入深度衰退，产出缺口很大，而利率已经接近零。
Which policy should the government use, and why is the other one weak?
政府该用哪一种政策，另一种为什么在这里很弱？
Pause and plan your answer.
先暂停，想好你的答案。
Start from the constraint the question gives you: rates are near zero.
从题目给你的约束条件出发：利率已经接近零。
So monetary policy is weak — little room left to cut, and cheap credit will not make firms invest when they expect no demand.
所以货币政策很弱—— 几乎没有降息空间，而且在企业预期没有需求时，便宜的信贷也不会让它们投资。
Fiscal policy is stronger: spending raises demand directly, and the multiplier makes each pound go further.
财政政策更强：政府支出直接提高需求，乘数还让每一元钱发挥更大作用。
Weigh the cost — a bigger deficit, rising debt, and long time lags.
再权衡代价——更大的赤字、上升的债务，以及很长的时间滞后。
Always answer the constraint named in the question.
要回答题目点明的那个约束条件。
Three habits before you go.
走之前记住三个习惯。
First, match the policy to the objective: fiscal and monetary act on demand, supply-side raises long-run capacity.
第一，把政策和目标对上：财政与货币作用于需求， 供给侧提高长期生产能力。
Second, always explain the route — how a rate change reaches demand, and how spending and taxes do.
第二，一定要讲清传导过程——利率变化如何影响需求， 支出和税收又如何影响需求。
Third, evaluate effectiveness: time lags, side effects, and the conflicts between objectives.
第三，写出评价：时间滞后、副作用，以及目标之间的冲突。