Extract. In early 2022 one US dollar bought about 115 Japanese yen. By mid-2024 it bought about 160 yen, the weakest the yen had been since 1986. A key reason was the gap in interest rates: the US central bank raised its rate above 5%, while the Bank of Japan kept its rate below zero until March 2024. Savers moved money out of yen to earn more in dollars. Japanese car makers reported record profits, and a record 36.9 million foreign tourists visited Japan in 2024. But Japan imports most of its energy and much of its food, and in 2022 it had a record trade deficit as import bills rose.
Questions
- (a) Define depreciation of a currency. [2]
- (b) Using the extract, explain one reason why the yen depreciated. [3]
- (c) A Japanese car costs ¥3,000,000. Calculate its price in US dollars at 120 yen per dollar and at 150 yen per dollar. [2]
- (d) A barrel of oil costs $80. Calculate its cost in yen at 120 and at 150 yen per dollar, and the percentage change. [2]
- (e) Analyse how the depreciation affected Japan's tourism industry. [4]
- (f) Evaluate whether the weak yen was good for the Japanese economy. [9]
Model answers
(a) A depreciation is a fall in the value of a currency against other currencies in a floating exchange-rate system, caused by market forces (demand and supply of the currency).
(b) US interest rates rose above 5% while Japan's stayed below zero. Savers and investors could earn much more on dollar deposits and bonds, so they sold yen to buy dollars. The supply of yen on the currency market rose and demand for yen fell, so the yen's value fell.
(c) At 120: $3{,}000{,}000 \div 120 = 25{,}000$, so $25,000. At 150: $3{,}000{,}000 \div 150 = 20{,}000$, so $20,000. The same car is $5,000 (20%) cheaper for American buyers.
(d) At 120: $80 \times 120 = 9{,}600$, so ¥9,600. At 150: $80 \times 150 = 12{,}000$, so ¥12,000. The rise is $\tfrac{12{,}000 - 9{,}600}{9{,}600} \times 100 = 25\%$, with no change in the dollar price of oil.
(e) A weaker yen means each dollar, euro or yuan buys more yen, so hotels, meals and shopping in Japan become cheaper for foreign visitors. Demand for trips to Japan rises: the extract reports a record 36.9 million visitors in 2024. Tourism is an export of services, so spending by visitors adds to Japan's current account and to aggregate demand, creating jobs in hotels, transport and shops. Crowding at popular places is a cost of this success.
(f) Benefits: exports become cheaper abroad (the car falls from $25,000 to $20,000), so exporters sell more and earn more profit when they change dollars back into yen. Tourism booms. Higher exports raise aggregate demand, output and employment. Japan had very low inflation for many years, so some rise in prices was welcome.
Costs: imports become dearer. Energy and food are necessities with inelastic demand, so Japan keeps buying them and the import bill rises (oil up 25% in yen). This caused a record trade deficit in 2022 and cost-push inflation. Households' real incomes fall if wages rise more slowly than prices. Firms that import their materials face higher costs.
It depends on: how elastic the demand for Japan's exports is (if buyers do not respond much to lower prices, export revenue gains are small); how long the weak yen lasts (contracts take time to change, so the trade balance may get worse before it gets better); and who is affected. Exporters and tourism firms gain, while households and import-using firms lose.
Judgement: the weak yen helped large exporters and tourism, but it raised living costs for most households because Japan relies on imported energy and food. On balance it gave a short-term boost to demand, but it is not a lasting source of growth: that needs higher productivity, not a cheaper currency.
What examiners reward: correct currency calculations with units, a clear chain from the exchange rate to prices, to demand, to the current account, both winners and losers named, and a judgement.